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02 August 2006

 

Brandish is a service for retailers
Its visible face is this newsletter and a website.

The brandish retail intelligence newsletter will reach the inboxes of more than 25,000 retail managers in Australia and New Zealand each week.

Brandish is sponsored, compiled and sometimes written by people from Orex Recruiters or their friends, associates and partners.

We want to become this country's principal conduit for retail intelligence. A single place from where you can find what you need to know.

We aim to be a central point for access to information about all aspects of retail. You will see news, opinion, rumor, information, links and sometimes wisdom.

Brandish is written for retail managers. It addresses all issues we feel are important to retailers. We will provide ideas and concepts that work within a retail environment. We will talk about why things might not be working.

You will read specific examples of how other retailers are successful in their initiatives. We will try to give you a heads up on leadership and management, category trends, and technology updates. We will report, attempt to analyse, and provide a forum for your comments and ideas.

Why?
Once upon a time, people became retailers straight from school, often with minimal education. Some rose to become the boss.

In terms of its people, the industry is going through a transition.

During the last decade retail has become far more skilled. Retailers need to be better educated, more informed, more scientific and less seat of the pants. Retailers need to be better leaders.

But did retail ever stand still? If perfection is ever achieved, it is ephemeral. Retail is always a work in progress; a journey.

Brandish will help you on the journey.

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Brandish is edited by Rob Lake. Contact him on (03) 9349 8989.

A lesson from a historian

Australian historian Manning Clark believed Australian leaders were divided into the “punishers and straiteners” and the “enlargers of life”.

In the epilogue of his six volume A History of Australia, Clark wrote:

”This generation has a chance to be wiser than previous generations. They can make their own history. With the end of the domination of the straiteners, the enlargers of life now have their chance”.

Not too many years ago I sat in a room with more than a dozen senior people from the Coles Victorian operation. In the meeting were the State Manager, one of the two Regional Managers, three Area Managers, about eight Store Managers and a couple of people from Human Resources.

They wanted to know how Orex could help them deal with a problem caused by the resignation (in a twelve month period) of 21 of the 105 store managers of Coles' supermarkets in Victoria. They were at a loss to explain this massive blood loss. I wasn't.

The State Manager (now gone) quickly assumed dominance. In what was to be a round table discussion, he did almost all the talking. He kept thumping the table and saying things like: “I've been in this business for 38 years and it's simple. It's just delegation, follow-up and policing”.

Coles is still largely run by straiteners and punishers.

I believe John Fletcher is an enlarger of life and an enhancer. His challenge is to either turn his punishers into enhancers; or replace them.

We declined the Coles brief.

No great leap forward for Coles

While the commentators were expecting something more about strategy than numbers, it seems Coles Myer has unveiled more of the same.

John Fletcher has failed to unveil the anticipated five year grand strategic plan. No aspirational goals, no milestones - just some spending plans, a bit of tweaking of the tactics, and some messages that analysts like to hear - leaner, faster, low-cost, aggregation, efficiencies and world's best.

Subject to what should be automatic shareholder approval, Coles Myer Limited will be re-badged as Coles Group Limited. And that is one of the more exciting parts of the plans.

Eight business units with 12 brands will become three business units with 10 brands. Bi-Lo is to be absorbed into Coles Supermarkets and the NSW Theo's liquor brand will be rationalised. The exit of the Bi-Lo brand will create a vacuum at the bargain end of the grocery sector into which Aldi, Franklins and others may move, although Coles could use house brands to defend that space.

The three business units will be dominated by a giant Coles branded everyday needs group (food, grog, petrol and Kmart), employing almost 85% of the people and dwarfing the other two stand alone groups; Target and Officeworks. Within the big group the Coles name will predominate as an umbrella brand, eventually subsuming Kmart and others as stand alone badging.

There is $300m for “strategic initiatives” including plans for more stores and a something about an enhanced loyalty program.

Coles will invest $60 million on more people, trolleys and cleaner & brighter stores. New fluoro tubes, painting and cleaners sound more like maintenance than capex to us.

There is little about how the Coles offer might change to win back customers who now shop elsewhere. As Michael Morrison points out in this article about the battle in the aisles: "Shoppers want selection, they want service, they want ambience”. We have learnt nothing about Coles creating a special shopping experience.

Fletcher seems to want to transform the corporate culture into one team, with shared vision, goals, and strategy, values and behaviours. However, there is no mention of how Coles will undo their top-down totem pole culture, with a history of pulling rank and still hampered by internal politics and an aversion to risk taking.

Other than a stated aspiration, there is nothing in the presentation indicating any real cultural shift. Unless he finds a way to make real change; accepted, driven and lived at all levels of the company, it will remain a motherhood ambition and will militate against his effort to regain the crown of Oz retailing.

Fletcher may be convinced that his Generals and Colonels have shared vision, goals, strategy, values and behaviours but unless the Lieutenants, Sergeants and Privates are singing from the same hymn sheet, it is all meaningless.

Coles says the new strategy has taken nine months to develop and is based on exhaustive research of customers, team, suppliers and the world's best retailers. Time will tell whether this research has been useful. We wonder whether Coles any longer has the ability to hear what is being said by their customers, the team members closest to their customers or their suppliers.

It may be time to ask whether the hierarchical management culture; the politics; the risk aversion, and the unwillingness to challenge the status quo or question the boss has finally caught up with Coles; stifling their capacity to make any significant change. If Coles is mired in the quicksand of an outdated or malignant culture they will only ever be capable of a few twitches as they slowly sink. It may require a real or threatened catastrophe before the necessary catharsis can take place.

Woolworths got a jump on Coles a couple of years ago, particularly with their supply chain improvements. Coles is now trying to play catch up in hard times for retailers.

The press following the presentation was very ho-hum. We could find nothing enthusiastic. We read “ lost the plot ”; “ bold new rebranding ”; and “fixing the trolleys”.

Investors seem to share the low enthusiasm. On a day when the ASX 200 climbed a little, CML shares had fallen 3% by the end of the day's trading following the Fletcher presentation. Woolworths and more than half the other shares in our retail watch list were rising. The slump continued. CML has tumbled from a Monday intra day high of $11.75 down to $10.85 before closing yesterday at $10.90. By Wednesday it was like watching a train wreck in slow motion as the shares traded down to $10.61 before a rally. Almost 10% had been wiped off the share price.

What was to be the blueprint for the great leap forward has not only failed to excite, it may instead have been perceived by investors as a profit downgrade warning.

Ruthless focus on the customer

The Experience Economy is the term used in a 1998 Harvard Business review piece about the frontiers for innovation. Customer experience will decide the winners and losers in almost every industry.

Superior customer service is still so novel that we rave about it to others long after the moment has passed. Loyalty is built. People will pay more for a purchase involving a great experience. Finally, in a me-too generic world in which many retailers are offering almost identical merchandise ranges, exceptional experiences can set you apart.

Start with your customers, find what they want and exceed those expectations.

Customer service – it's not that hard if you just think about it. But we've come to expect poor service. Slow checkout queues; inattention; and plain lack of convenience are too familiar.

Use a specialist

Orex is a specialist recruiter of retail leaders.

We have a huge bank of 62,000 retail managers – and it's run by the best technology.

We know about perceptive planners, brilliant buyers and dynamic leaders who aren't scouring the papers looking for a new job. If the right candidate isn't in our databank; someone who can point to the right person will be there.

At Orex, you deal with recruiters who speak your language. Recruiters who have worked in senior buying and planning roles.

To learn what Australia's leading specialist retail recruiter can do for your business, call Rob Lake or Christine Sturgess on 03 9349 8989.

Retail numbers watch

Brandish uses a parcel of retail related stocks to measure our industry. The list comprises: Angus & Coote; API; Brazin; Coles Myer; Colorado; David Jones; Flight Centre; Billabong; Harvey Norman; JB HiFi; Just Group; Metcash; Millers; Repco; Rebel Sport; Reject Shop; Super Cheap Auto; Symbion Health; Wesfarmers and Woolworths. We report monthly on progress.

The retail investment market has been quiet, with very little movement. Exceptions were Flight Centre, up 15% for the month and Harvey Norman down 14%.

Since January, the best performed stock has been The Reject Shop, up a little more than 50%. Avoiding Angus & Coote (-34%) and Super Cheap Autos (-33%) might have been a good decision.

The Brandish unweighted and unscientific indicative retail investment fell less than 1% for the month and is up a pathetic 2% since the beginning of 2006.

The ABS has just released the Australian  retail trade data for June. 

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover increased by 1.0% . This follows a revised decrease of 0.2% in May and a revised increase of 1.0% in April. 

Department stores and clothing show weak growth for the last three months.  Household goods and food are showing moderate growth.  However no-one is having any fun as recreational goods have continued their 14 month decline. 

Trends are reasonably uniform across the mainland states, with Tassie in decline.

And by now you will probably know the Reserve Bank has decided to depress us by raising interest rates by 0.25%, sucking a couple of billion from household budgets - and there may be more where that came from.

Embracing the wealthy shopper

Attracting the wealthy customer and their high end disposable income is the aim of department stores everywhere.

The way to do it is changing. Bergdorf Goodman was the domain of ladies who lunch, buying $5000 gowns with their platinum cards. Shoppers landing in the New York icon's fifth floor now find a different offer - a DJ spinning lounge music, a panini bar and racks yes RACKS of clothing from edgy designers.

Nordstrom is testing “girlfriends” change rooms in which up to five friends can tell each other whether it makes their bum look big.

The biggest driver behind many of these changes is demographics. Retailers are finding ways to adapt to a market with aging baby boomers and the movement of money into the hands of younger generations. The echo-boomers (teens through early 20s) and Gen-Xers (30-somethings) have grown up bombarded by designer brands since they were toddlers. Gen X average household income is now higher than that of Baby Boomers.

David Jones boss Mark McInnes is chasing a well heeled middle class shopper. He wants females, married with children, professionals with a degree and a mortgage. He wants people who love shopping for brands - even when petrol prices are high and interest rates are rising. This typical DJs shopper has helped McInnes thumb his nose at retailers moaning about high petrol prices and interest rate increases. He sees his market as being inflation proof.

Now we are reading that up to 38% of wealthy customers prefer shopping online for goods and services. The advantage of online shopping is that a shopper can check to see if the product is in stock, determine its suitability, and make a purchase, all without standing in a queue or fighting for a parking space.

Upmarket stores are not the only retailers trying to lure customers with the promise of exclusive products. Mid priced US department stores are returning to house brands and exclusive ranges. J.C. Penney said it hoped its displays of Arizona jeans, trendy Miss Bisou clothing, and furniture by Chris Madden would show shoppers that it now stocks contemporary, unique merchandise that is worth a trip to its stores. Penney is not alone in trying to draw shoppers with the promise of exclusive products.

Therein lies the lesson. Retailing is always a journey and a work in progress. Stand still and you will hear a whooshing noise as the market and your competitors pass your ears.

Wal-Mart leaving Germany, coming here?

Following an eight year battle in a market dominated by discounters, Wal-Mart has found the German market too tough and has sold their 85 hypermarkets to local retailer Metro.

Wal-Mart entered the Germany market in 1997 buying two existing hypermarket chains, but it struggled from the outset against stiff local competition that included Metro, Aldi and Lidl.

Now we hear rumours that Wal-Mart might be coming to Australia, reportedly sizing up Coles Myer and Woolworths. Wal-Mart has market capitalisation approaching AU$250 billion and would appear to have the financial capacity to swallow CML ($13b and falling) or Woolworths ($20b) as a snack. CML Chief John Fletcher says he is unaware of any interest.

The down side of self checkout

The growth of self checkout lanes in supermarkets is having a dramatic negative effect on the impulse purchases by waiting customers.

Consumers in a new study said they purchase almost 50% less gum, confectionery, magazines or drinks when they use self checkout systems.

New merchandising strategies may be needed at the front end as retailers deploy new systems. In a staffed checkout lane, customers are idle and generally trapped. Packaged items can be seductive.

Retailers may need to consider rotisserie chickens or freshly baked bread to offer an olfactory lure that a customer may find harder to resist as they concentrate on manually scanning items.

Hot Job – National Retail Ops Manager

Getting on a plane and travelling frequently around Australia is something that you already do and something that is simply part of your job! With over one hundred stores nationally there will be lots of travel leading the national operations of this group.

You are already working in a national role, or at least a very large state or regional based position. You are looking for the next challenge in your already successful senior retail management career.

Ideally you live, or are prepared to live in Brisbane – as Queensland is the state where most of the stores are based. Alternatively, you could work out of Melbourne but this would mean more travel (not a bad incentive during a cold winter).

Your approach is to achieve win-win outcomes and to build strong relationships with your colleagues, direct reports and the stores and store owners. This is a franchise business operation and with that comes all the challenges of brand integrity, consistency and implementation.

You will be well supported by a committed, passionate team and a professional but friendly and open culture.

If reading this has sparked a degree of interest or intrigue then please call Tracey Horton on 03 9349 8989 to find out more or apply sending your resume to 5101.orex1@hiredesk.net.

Brazin to be reviewed

Brazin has announced a strategic review to overcome challenging market conditions. News of the review prompted speculation of another private equity buyout. CEO Greg Milne denied the company was up for sale. The company has flagged possible divestments.

Brazin may not be under the hammer, but it's certainly under the pump. The company said it expected net profit for the year ending June to be marginally ahead of the previous year when it fell 12% due to some one off costs associated with the exits from Ghetto and Insane. We are thus to expect a full year profit of around $22m. This follows a first half profit of $20m. It appears something did not go well in the last half.

Bananas, petrol or a talent shortage?

I spend my life recruiting middle to senior retail managers. Although retailing employs almost 15% of the Oz workforce, it is an admittedly narrow window. However, I can see four things causing skills shortages that are resulting in upward pressure on salaries.

1. Half the baby boomers are now over 55 and leaving the workforce. Their rate of retirement will accelerate.

2. About a decade ago, technical and trade education became unfashionable and slowed or stopped. We have a growing shortage of tradies. In a few years it will be almost impossible to get a plumber – particularly for the less glamorous work.

3. The mining boom is sucking people west and putting significant upward pressure on wages.

4. In-house skill development has been in decline in many industries, creating a shortage of skilled employees in key areas. One example from retailing is the role of merchandise planners who work in retail buying offices quantifying merchandise orders for merchandise. Their analysis and planning is critical to profitability. In the last couple of years a serious shortage of good planners has meant that salaries have jumped steeply, and we are now importing them from the UK and South Africa. This type of shortage is replicated in other retail roles and may be an unwanted consequence of deregulated trading hours. The kids that once entered the industry now see it as a casual student job that is OK until they get a real career. But they aren't being trained for retail careers.

In our industry roles have become much harder to fill in the last 12-24 months as good candidates become harder to find and move.

These are small pointers to a larger labour market trend. Supply falling. Demand climbing. Salaries? You guessed it. And say what you like about bananas and petrol; this can push inflation.

Retail Clinics

Retail medical clinics located in high traffic supermarkets have been around for a while in the US. They cater for people who lack the time (You're Sick; We're Quick) or money to access more traditional health care delivery. Some clinics are run by nurses, others by doctors.

Retail Wire believes these clinics offer the greatest appeal to Hispanics.

In the UK, leading apothecary Boots is to open NHS GP clinics in their High Street stores We suspect the British offer will be a little more traditional than the US ventures.

The closest thing we have in Australian is Tele-Nurse. Is shopfront medicine a trend we might see here?

RFID experience reveals future for retailers

As part of Australia 's largest ever RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification) project for exhibitions, visitors to the Retail Technology Expo will don electronic name badges and experience for themselves how RFID technology will shape the future of retail, 19-21 September at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre.

Every visitor will have the chance to interactively learn about real-world retail applications for RFID – tomorrow's barcode technology – when they attend one of the five exhibits offering demonstrations throughout the Expo – NCR Australia, Symbol Technologies, Fujitsu Australia, Pronto Software and GS1 Australia.

Identification data stored on the RFID name badges will be instantaneously “captured” and displayed by the RFID readers, offering visitors a rare glimpse into how this technology may translate to a retail environment in the future.

Supported by NCR Australia and Symbol Technologies who are jointly supplying the tags and RFID readers, Expo organisers believe this will be the first opportunity for many visitors to personally encounter the potential of RFID technology.

“The future direction of retail will see RFID tags emerging in competition with the omnipresent barcode, and this exciting new addition to the show allows visitors to come to grips with a technology that is often talked about in a retail context, but rarely personalised in an interactive setting,” says Todd Blake, Exhibition Director, Diversified Exhibitions Australia.

Although RFID technology has origins dating back to World War 2, it is only recently that business users have recognised some of the potential advantages that RFID offers over barcodes. Benefits for retailers include: RFID tags can be read from a greater distance and can be updated with new data at any time; codes can identify an individual item (not just a type); RFID tags are more durable than labels; and a single scan can read multiple items.

“Today customers are exploring and evaluating RFID solutions across retail vertical industries including hospitality, general merchandise, and food,” says Con Vass, Area Sales Vic e President, South Asia Pacific, NCR Retail Solutions Division.

“In the future retailers may use RFID technology as part of the stock replenishment process. For example, store staff would use a mobile handheld computer with RFID reader to scan the aisle for current stock levels, and an alert would then be sent to the replenishment staff to advise what product and location needs to be re-stocked. Consequently, customer satisfaction may also dramatically improve,” says Kurt Hansen, Managing Director, Symbol Technologies, Australia.

The Shopfit & Design Expo will run concurrent to the Retail Technology Expo over three consecutive days, and together the events will showcase the latest retail technology solutions, supply chain and logistics developments, point-of-sale equipment, financial and back office software, the latest shop fitting products and retail design solutions. Enquiries to 03 9261 4500.

New Just chief

Just Group has appointed an internal candidate to succeed the departing Howard McDonald. Former CFO Jason Murray will take up the role in September.

McDonald is heading to Myer as a consultant in what some a describing as a move to strengthen the advice Myer MD Bernie Brookes is getting on matters textile, apparel and footwear.

What are you getting for Christmas?

The Christmas and New Year festival of the cash register represents up to 50% of the year's sales (and a larger chunk of profit) for some merchants.

US retailers use the current back to school period as a portent for what they call the holiday season. It is their bellwether, helping retailers identify emerging trends. Early predictions were for a good season.

The National Retail Federation predicted a jump in all categories, with electronic and apparel purchases fuelling this year's back-to-school growth. Total spending on electronics or computer-related equipment, such as home computers, laptops, PDAs, or calculators, is estimated to increase by more than $1.5 billion this year ($3.82 billion vs. $2.06 billion), rebounding after a sharp decline in 2005.

The early reality has not been so rosy. Some are blaming fuel prices; others feel the retailers are not doing enough to excite customers.

Will Christmas present a problem for retailers who do not ramp up their online offer? UK online retail, in all its forms, is surging, utilised by almost half of all adults. Retailers that do not have strong multi-channel capabilities, as a result of their failure to recognise that online should be an integral part of their businesses, may be hit severely at Christmas as internet sales continue to grow rapidly.

A great retail management program

Monash University Australian Centre for Retail Studies is running their Strategic Value Optimisation in Retailing program in Melbourne during late October.

Learn how to effectively blend science and art in a multi-channel setting to leverage greater value from all components of an integrated retail offer.

This engaging 5 day residential senior management development program is designed to provide a world-class educational experience under the guidance of academic experts and retail industry consultants from the Retail Management Institute, Santa Clara University, California, USA.

It is ideal for senior managers who are key decision makers in retail and retail related businesses including: Managing Directors, Chief Information Officers, Chief Finance Officers and General Managers particularly in the areas of Operations, IT, Marketing, Merchandise, Distribution, Finance, Strategy and Business Development.

Further details are available here or by calling Lenore Harris at ACRS on 03 9903 2455.

ARA Training Update

Melbourne – (03) 9321 5000

  • 14 August - Retail Systems
  • 21 August - Managing Time & Reducing Stress
  • 29 August - Managing Performance

Sydney – (02) 9290 7141

  • 22 August – Motivating & Coaching
  • 28 August – Difficult Customers
  • 29 August – OH&S Risk Management

To learn more about ARA training click here.

Retail Briefs

  • Chinese are now the world's biggest clothes shoppers.
  • Babylegs – big warmers for little pins - are coming to Australia.
  • Small businesses are not utilising the hard line parts of WorkChoices.